Collaboration, copper conviction, and mismatched mineral concentration – Special Feature
The International Council on Mining and Metals’ (ICMM) foundational Global Mining Dataset shows more than 75% of national economies have at least some connection to large-scale mining or mineral processing.
ICMM President Rohitesh Dhawan says raw materials are at the heart of the energy transition and geopolitical shifts and will continue to have multifaceted global contributions and impacts.
The vast majority of extracted materials entering the global economy are virgin – the share of secondary materials has been declining steadily from 9.1% in 2018 to 7.2% just five years later in 2023, according to the Circle Economy Foundation.
Over a 20-year period, world production of mineral fuels, metal ores, and industrial minerals increased from 11.3 billion tonnes in 2000 to 17.3 billion tonnes in 2020. Between 2016 and 2021 alone, the world consumed 582 billion tonnes of materials – close to the 740 billion consumed throughout the entire 20th century.
Data shows some commodities, such as aluminium (166%) and iron ore (151%), substantially outpaced the growth rate of many between 2000 to 2020. This trend is expected to continue, with metal ores likely the fastest growing material categories. This is in part due to burgeoning demand induced by the decarbonisation efforts and electrification revolution.
Part one of this 2030 Outlook series looks into the changing investment landscape, and opportunities for miners. Part two explores how collaboration and partnerships, a changing battery metals market, and copper being the highest-conviction transition metal, are all shaping the resources landscape.
This feature series unveils how these scenarios are likely to play out – and what to watch for next. Mining.com.au speaks to C-suite executives, investment management firms, dealmakers, and analysts on what will drive mining over the coming years.
Mineral concentration
China has the highest mineral concentration of any country – and by far. It produces more than 50% of the supply of 18 minerals and has at least a 10% concentration of reserves for another 35.
China also dominates the downstream processing market for many critical minerals. It accounts for 69% of the world’s rare earths production and 92% of processing, which advisory firm PwC reports is the most processing concentration of energy transition minerals.
The US is responsible for producing more than 50% of seven minerals and has a greater-than-10% concentration of a further 12 raw materials.
As Mining.com.au reported in its Africa outlook series, the continent possesses about 30% of the world’s known mineral resources. Between 2024 and 2050, cumulative revenue from just four critical minerals – cobalt, copper, lithium, and nickel – are expected to exceed those from fossil fuels by more than three times.
Australia remains a global mining powerhouse. It boasts an extraordinary geological endowment and produces 14 of the 31 minerals classified as critical by major economies.
The country’s mineral profile includes 52% of global lithium resources, 22% of world nickel resources, and 17% of cobalt resources. It posses significant deposits of rare earth elements, major reserves of copper and manganese, and emerging resources in gallium, germanium, and other technology-critical elements.
PwC notes (as pictured above) concentration risk arises from two forces – one natural and one human-made. Naturally, the endowment of a region’s mineral resources is unable to be changed. Boosting exploration and developing technologies may discover resources in different territories, but they cannot be relocated.
By contrast, PwC says production and processing endowment relies on aspects such as access to financing and government policies. As such, there has been rising concentration of reserves and production, as well as development of substantial mismatches between the two.
Strategic collaboration
PwC’s Mine 2025 report shows resource nationalism is taking precedence over optimised supply chains, and as part one of this series highlights one thing remains clear – “collaboration will be the order of the day” – in 2025, in 2030, and in 2035.
Speaking to Mining.com.au, PwC Energy, Utilities & Resources Industry Leader Kerryl Bradshaw says collaboration opportunities are available, and at its core, productivity is driving a significant change in overall portfolios. As part of that, mining companies are increasingly seeking partnerships.
With a looming surge of offtake agreements, joint ventures, and friend-shore processing deals out to 2030, Australia offers a politically stable and environmentally responsible option.
The country provides partner nations with supply chain diversification that reduces geopolitical risk, Bradshaw adds. And with this, Australia is leveraging its critical minerals endowment to strengthen bilateral relationships with key partners.
These partnerships extend beyond buyer-seller relationships. They encompass technology transfer agreements, research collaboration, and strategic alignment on resource security and supply issues.
For example, the Australia-US Climate, Critical Minerals and Clean Energy Transformation Compact facilitates investment in Australian projects, technical cooperation, and preferential access to US markets. The Critical Minerals Facility provides up to $2 billion in financing.
The Japan-Australia Strategic Partnership Agreement includes collaborative research initiatives and investment frameworks focused on rare earths and battery minerals.
Australia and the European Union have economic partnership frameworks with provisions specifically addressing critical minerals supply and processing, and India is looking to cooperate on mineral processing technologies and supply chain integration.
Partnerships propelling productivity
In terms of partnerships, Peak Asset Management Executive Director Niv Dagan notes it takes years to graduate from exploration to production. And the capex costs and infrastructure spending are significant.
“So companies undertaking joint ventures and partnerships, especially on the processing side, will be able to fast track their project a lot quicker, a lot more economically,” Dagan explains to Mining.com.au.
“And that’s what we are seeing, similar to the research and development grants here in Australia where for example medical companies receive 42.5 cents to the dollar.
“There are similar type ways where global mining companies are leveraging off, with the huge amount of infrastructure and spending into the US by actually being able to fast track their ability to produce at a critical mass and at economic scale.”
“So companies undertaking joint ventures and partnerships, especially on the processing side, will be able to fast track their project a lot quicker, a lot more economically”
Charles Altshuler, CEO of Africa-focused Globe Metals & Mining (ASX:GBE), says emerging trends to monitor towards the end of this decade include increasing alignment with world ESG standards, traceability systems, and regional collaboration across southern Africa.
By 2030, he anticipates more vertically integrated projects, local refining capacity, and strong partnerships between governments and private investors to capture more of the mineral value chain domestically, Altshuler tells Mining.com.au.
“By the end of the decade, Africa is expected to supply a greater share of global critical minerals, supported by foreign investment and government partnerships,” the CEO continues.
There has already been a spate of joint ventures and strategic partnerships.
Petratherm (ASX:PTR) in mid-August 2025 entered a JV with Narryer Metals (ASX:NYM) for further exploration at the Muckanippie Project in South Australia. The JV follows completion of stage two commitments under the farm-in, where Petratherm was required to invest $500,000 of expenditure over a four-year period to earn up to 70% interest.
That same month, Zeotech (ASX:ZEO) locked in a five-year agreement worth almost $200 million with a Chinese global trading house Jiangsu Mineral Sources International Trading Co (MSI) for kaolin supply.
The emerging mineral processing technology firm inked a binding term sheet with MSI – one of the world’s largest traders of kaolin – for 950,000 tonnes of direct shipping ore kaolin products. That deal was completed on 15 September.
Earlier this year Cazaly Resources (ASX:CAZ) exercised the option to proceed with an earn-in agreement with Brightstar Resources (ASX:BTR) for the Goongarrie Gold Project in Western Australia. As previously reported, Cazaly signed a binding term sheet with Brightstar in February 2025 to acquire 80% of Goongarrie.
At the end of last year, Alchemy Resources (ASX:ALY) received Foreign Investment Review Board approval regarding the farm-in and JV agreement with Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC). Alchemy had locked in the partnership with JOGMEC for its Roe Hills Project in Western Australia, in which JOGMEC can earn up to 51% in the project by spending $6 million on exploration by the end of March 2029.
Not long after, iTech Minerals (ASX:ITM) entered into a binding memorandum of understanding to partner with Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (NYSE:SQM) to develop the Reynolds Range Lithium Project in the Northern Territory.
The strategic pivot
While these aforementioned partnership agreements focus on a wide range of important metals and critical minerals, copper remains the highest-conviction transition metal heading into 2030.
Grid buildouts, surging data-centre power demand, and electrified transport keep the soft, malleable, and ductile metal at the centre of the transition story.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns of a looming and significant copper shortfall under announced-pledge scenarios by the mid-2030s without new investment. Traders, miners, and market watchers are echoing these warnings in 2025.
It’s why renowned North American investors Rick Rule and Jeff Phillips became cornerstone investors in Kincora Copper’s (ASX:KCC) $4 million equity raise in early September.
Kincora remains bullish on the copper sector and, among other things, has been drilling at the Nevertire South Project, which intersected a large, multi-phase Macquarie Arc volcanic and intrusive complex.
The Nyngan, Nevertire South, and Nevertire projects are included in two earn-in and joint ventures with AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE:AU), further highlighting the trend of increasing partnerships.
True North Copper (ASX:TNC) Managing Director Bevan Jones is optimistic and reiterates copper’s importance to the electrification revolution. The company has delivered new drill targets at the Aquila discovery within the Mt Oxide Project in Queensland.
The newly identified targets present an opportunity to expand the mineralised footprint, as well as test the full extent of the system and potentially deliver additional discoveries within the broader Mt Oxide area. True North is eyeing potential growth opportunities in the Mount Isa region of Queensland, with Jones recently telling Mining.com.au there’s a need for regional consolidation.
“It is a bit of a jigsaw puzzle how that’s all pulled together, but the pieces are starting to come together,” Jones says.
“We have been very closely looking at opportunities that could see consolidation in the region potentially. The entire region is centred around the copper smelter, all the facilities of Glencore (LSE:GLEN). But all of the near-term production is not in the hands of Glencore.”
Jones says companies like True North Copper are in the box seat to be driving development in what’s touted as the highest-conviction transition metal.
Meanwhile, Star Copper (CSE:STCU) is a Canadian explorer very aware of the looming shortfall. It’s why it is ramping up its phase two drilling program at its namesake Star Project in northwestern British Columbia.
Due to its unparalleled electrical properties copper is omnipresent in nearly all electrical and data centre infrastructure, which requires enormous quantities of the metal.
Star Copper says demand – measured by power consumption to reflect the number of servers a data centre can house – is expected to increase by 165% by 2030. For reference, one megawatt of data centre power requires 27 tonnes of copper, while larger data centres can consume 100 megawatts – which requires up to 2,700 tonnes.
Questcorp Mining (CSE:QQQ) CEO Saf Dhillon agrees there’s a looming shortfall. Questcorp earlier this month was granted a permit to start induced polarisation surveys at the North Island Copper Project on Vancouver Island in British Columbia.
The company recently completed an oversubscribed C$2.7 million capital raise backed by long-term US investors and supportive shareholders.
Copper outlook
Long term, the outlook for copper looks solid. Oxford Economics says global demand is set to rise robustly, driven by electrification, AI infrastructure, renewable energy, and electric vehicles.
Urbanisation and consumption growth in emerging markets will play a larger role. On the supply side, Oxford Economics notes mine expansion remains constrained by permitting delays, declining ore grades, and increasing public opposition supports structurally higher prices over time.
This could drive M&A for development-stage assets, amid brownfield debottlenecking, and an increase in long-dated offtakes as OEMs and cablemakers seek supply security.
Chile and Peru account for more than a third of copper supply, although 45% of refined production happens in China. Commodity Insights forecasts refined copper demand to rise to 31.1 million tonnes in 2030 from 23.5Mt in 2019.
China is trying to curb overcapacity and removed subsidies for plants that recycle scrap copper, supporting margins for refiners struggling with high treatment charges.
Meanwhile, the US is removing refined copper from its tariff list. Levies will only apply to imports of semi-finished copper products, such as those found in wires and pipes.
This move recently led to a record-setting selloff in futures of almost 20%. Deutsche Bank is forecasting copper prices could exceed US$10,000 per tonne by 2026 depending on demand dynamics.
The IMF’s metals price index rose by 11.2% from August 2024 to March 2025, led by aluminum (+12.7%) but also copper (+8.4%), which was largely underpinned by supply disruptions and surging demand.
Copper futures in the US were above US$4.5 per pound at the start of September 2025, gaining traction as previously mentioned new Chinese government regulations momentarily pressed its supply.
Battery metals changing shape
The International Energy Agency’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 says investment growth in critical minerals slowed in 2024. Supply remains highly concentrated, even as demand tied to electric vehicles and grids continues to rise.
Battery chemistry is tilting further toward lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP), which reduces reliance on nickel and cobalt while lifting the importance of lithium and graphite – where China dominates processing.
Lithium markets remain volatile after the 2023-24 slump. However, The World Economic Forum’s Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2025 June report flags structural battery composites (SBCs) as having a substantial impact on the future.
SBCs have uses in a plethora of applications, ranging from EVs to aerospace technologies. They integrate load-bearing mechanical components and rechargeable energy storage. This means SBCs can store energy the same way as traditional lithium-ion batteries, while also acting as rigid components of the vehicle or building the battery is powering.
The World Economic Forum reports the convergence of materials science and energy technology through structural battery composites represents a critical inflection point for global industries. Over the next decade, the WEF says innovative materials could potentially fundamentally restructure how infrastructure, energy storage, and product design are conceived across multiple sectors.
“With 85% of lithium currently refined by just three countries, the geopolitical landscape of critical minerals currently stands at a pivotal moment. SBCs offer a strategic pathway to diversify and decentralise energy material supply chains,” the World Economic Forum reports.
“This technological shift could reshape global economic dependencies, transforming how nations approach energy infrastructure and technological sovereignty.
“Beyond supply chain impacts, transformative potential is most evident in transport. In the automotive sector, a 10% reduction in vehicle weight can improve fuel efficiency by 6-8% and increase EV range by 70%.
“Aviation presents an equally compelling opportunity, with potential fuel efficiency improvements of 15% over a 1,500km flight. These are not merely incremental improvements, but potential catalysts for systemic change in transport design and energy consumption.”
PwC Energy, Utilities & Resources Industry Leader Kerryl Bradshaw says lithium has had a recent lift, which bodes well for Australia – one of the biggest suppliers of lithium in the world.
“But at the end of the day, it’s that hurdle regarding supply,” Bradshaw tells this news service.
As a result of the energy transition, lithium demand is set to rise from 313 kt of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2019 to 1,465 kt LCE by 2030. The chemistry shift toward LFP and the data-centre/grid buildout argues for more lithium and graphite mid-stream.
PwC’s Bradshaw notes majors like Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) are making a bet on the future of lithium. Earlier this year, the mining major completed its acquisition of Arcadium Lithium (NYSE:ALTM) for $6.7 billion.
“But overall, what you’ve got here is a world where essentially the bull markets, they’re driven by demand and supply. The demand itself is changing quite dramatically,” she adds.
It has been tough for many juniors in the lithium space. Companies such as Premier1 Lithium (ASX:PLC) are strategically pivoting attention to promising near-term opportunities outside of lithium already existing within its portfolio.
Over the past year, Premier1 has been realigning itself to take advantage of the strong long-term fundamentals of gold and copper markets.
“While lithium remains important to us – and we are well positioned to benefit when that market improves – as a junior it is difficult to justify significant lithium exploration expenditure in the current environment”
In a recent interview, Managing Director Jason Froud tells Mining.com.au Premier1 is positioning across commodities both in demand and aligned with global growth trends, while retaining exposure to lithium for the future.
“While lithium remains important to us – and we are well positioned to benefit when that market improves – as a junior it is difficult to justify significant lithium exploration expenditure in the current environment,” Froud tells this news service.
“Gold and copper, on the other hand, provide the strongest uplift from exploration success.”
Q2 Metals (TSX-V:QTWO) is well-positioned to capitalise on lithium’s re-emergence. It continues drilling at the Cisco Lithium Project in Québec as part of its strategy to unlock the full value of the project.
An expanded drilling program for the Canadian fall and winter continues to tighten the drill spacing within the mineralised zone, as Q2 Metals works towards an inferred resource estimate.
CEO Alicia Milne says the scale and consistency of the spodumene-bearing pegmatite intercepted to date reinforces the long-term potential of Cisco.
Graphite’s growing lure
The exponential growth of the EV industry, battery gigafactories, and data centres, especially in North America, Europe, and Asia is poised to continue driving graphite demand. As mentioned, the chemistry shift toward LFP and the data-centre/grid buildout argues for more lithium and graphite mid-stream.
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecasts demand for natural graphite to surge 140% by 2030. As such, 30 new natural graphite mines and 12 synthetic plants are needed to come online to close the shortfall. As reported in Mining.com.au’s graphite feature series, China is the largest supplier of natural graphite, accounting for over 70% of world production.
A forward-thinking emerging supplier of low-impact anode material is Lincoln Minerals (ASX:LML). Lincoln is advancing its flagship Kookaburra Graphite Project on South Australia’s Eyre Peninsula.
CEO Jonathon Trewartha says the global graphite market is undergoing a structural shift amid this demand for battery-grade graphite accelerating due EV and renewable energy sectors growing. The CEO says several major themes will drive both Lincoln’s growth and the broader natural graphite market out to 2030.
“As geopolitical tensions rise, global battery supply chains are shifting away from reliance on Chinese graphite. Lincoln’s tier-one jurisdiction in South Australia offers an attractive solution for customers seeking secure, ethical sourcing,” Trewartha tells this news service.
Lincoln’s strategy is to pursue coated spherical purified graphite production, meaning it is targeting not just the raw flake market but also the higher-margin, value-added BAM segment, opening up broader commercial opportunities.
Part three of this 2030 outlook series uncovers how advancements in technology, innovation, and automation are reshaping mining, why nuclear could see a resurgence, and what the changing disclosure rules are around how capital is priced.
Write to Adam Orlando at Mining.com.au
Images: CSIRO, iStock, Zeotech & Mining.com.au