There’s a confluence of diametric forces creating difficulty in anticipating market movements in 2025. Perspective is everything. Whether you’re a bull or bear the reality is – you’re probably right. Both outlooks are plausible. 

The vagaries of the market are such that potential catalysts for movements are as numerous and intertwined as they are varied. In part one of the United State of Mining: A North American outlook series, executives, dealmakers, and industry insiders present an air of optimism about what is likely to unfold.

Overall sentiment favours Canada to perform better than its North American counterpart. Collectively, mining insiders anticipate 2025 being defined by consolidation and steady dealflow, with capital raisings igniting equity markets (or vice versa), and public listings continuing to fire. 

Tempering this is a backdrop of US protectionism and deglobalisation within a changing political landscape fraught with trade tensions, supply chain vulnerabilities, and general instability. Now just days after his appointment, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has called a snap election for 28 April.

Despite the apprehensive start to the year, improving economic performance of the world’s leading economies is slated to supersede any headwinds on the global equities markets. Whether a bull or bear rears its head – that remains to be seen.

Lion Selection Group (ASX:LSX) CEO Hedley Widdup is bullish on the state of North America’s mining sector throughout 2025. His outlook is based on “pre-boom” sentiment and improving market conditions.

The Lion Investment Clock has already ticked to ‘mergers’ time, with ‘cash takeovers’ next, followed by ‘boom’ time. Lion’s clock is universal – it’s the same time for all markets and commodities around the world. Driving this boom-preceding activity, says Widdup, will be cashed-up producers pursuing synergistic bolt-on acquisitions in respective domestic markets to bolster existing operations.

“Gold producers with growing cash piles will be able to raise money and acquire from a position of strength and their junior / non-producer peers are still relatively depressed, making them very appealing targets. So I would expect to see gold producers acquiring,” Widdup tells Mining.com.au.  

“The last decade has driven a strong focus on jurisdiction risk, which means consolidation around their current operations more so than biting off new ones. Australian producers are very unlikely to go outside Australia. Ditto Canadians, with a North American preference. The Chinese have been very active in Africa, and there is no FIRB (Foreign Investment Review Board) to stand in their way there.” 

Peak Asset Management is seeing takeovers due to a low Aussie dollar relative to the US currency. Peak’s founder and Executive Director Niv Dagan says as gold continues reaching new highs he sees “further consolidation and cheap money to return”.

Widdup agrees, reiterating the trend of raising capital in 2025 will be positive, led by gold and copper. This is significant because these are large market commodities. When lithium was hot, money was raised and drove some share prices but that market is tiny in comparison.  

“When gold and copper are moving it’s because there is a lot of money moving in their direction – it has to be to move them,” Widdup continues.

Stock exchanges, administrative changes

Initial public offerings, or IPOs, are a good barometer of the health of share markets. When times are good or ‘bullish’ companies flock to publicly list, with money moving through the exchanges to fund and expand their operations. When times are tough or ‘bearish’ money is harder to access and there are fewer stock market debutants.

Widdup expects 2025 to be a better year than 2024 for IPOs, echoing sentiments of Dean McPherson, Head of Global Mining for the TMX Group (TSX:X), which operates the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) and TSX Venture Exchange (TSX-V).

With 1,097 listed mining companies, the TSX (184) and TSX-V (913) are home to 40% of global public mining companies. Last year, 41 new mining listings debuted on the exchanges – up 46% from 2023. These Toronto exchanges boasted more new listings of resources companies than any other bourse.

In excess of C$10 billion ($11.11 billion) in equity capital was raised in 2024 by TSX and TSX-V mining companies – up 36% from 2023. That total is equivalent to 50% of all equity raised on these exchanges across all sectors. On the TSX, the average amount raised was C$46 million, while on the smaller TSX-V the average totalled C$3.3 million.

Alongside this hub of activity, TMX Group is noticing an increase in the number of Australian and ASX mining companies bringing their investors to North America with dual listings, especially after acquiring projects or companies in the Americas. 

“In 2024 we saw seven companies doing just that. We expect this trend to continue, especially considering the M&A market expectation,” McPherson tells this news service.

“This helps their long term strategy in raising those companies’ profile in North America and increases their access to the world’s largest pool of capital. Our markets’ unique nexus to the USA capital markets creates a capital pool and mining ecosystem which has no comparison globally.”

Having lived in Vancouver for two years in 2018 and 2019, Peak Asset’s Dagan has a strong handle on both the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) and TSX-V/CSE markets. He sees the Canadian market finding it extremely difficult of late, as ongoing trade wars, lower liquidity and capital drives investors to safety.

“We speak to many small-cap CSE and TSX-V companies who find it difficult to raise capital in these markets and accordingly, we feel that Canadian listed companies who would like exposure on the ASX, are much better off spinning their core or even non-core assets into an ASX vehicle,” Dagan explains.

“We speak to many small-cap CSE and TSX-V companies who find it difficult to raise capital in these markets …“

“What also makes things harder for Australian investors is that opening brokerage accounts with Haywood, PI Financial, Interactive Brokers could be difficult and some don’t provide the full list of stocks to invest, given their small-cap nature.”

While dual listings offer a pathway to access capital and are now in favour, Dagan suggests it’s been extremely tough overall on the back of a much slower IPO market from 2022 to 2025. 

Dual listings refer to a listing of any security on two or more different stock exchanges. Companies benefit from these as they provide additional liquidity, increased access to capital, and the ability for shares to trade for longer periods if the exchanges are listed in different time zones.

But they can also over-complicate the process, Dagan adds, as companies require separate boards, a different set of accounts and investors, while incurring higher overall costs. He cautions companies will be better off to ‘spin off’ non-core assets on that specific exchange and build global distribution and access to capital with that framework. 

Bloated market or healthy appetite?

Considering IPOs are a barometer of the health of share markets, some mining executives foresee market fitness and wellness improving in North America. Others fret that while the TSX and TSX-V enjoyed a 46% increase in mining listings in 2024, the sheer number and questionable attractiveness of many public mining companies is worrisome.

But some executives think the market is at an inflection point.

Trojan Gold (CSE:TGII) is an Ontario-based prospect generator junior backed by investment firm Interbanc Capital. CEO of both companies, Charles J Elbourne, believes things are starting to shift as “we’ve seen the bottom of the junior mining market in North America”. 

“It’s just that the public has not taken any interest in it yet, to speak of. But I’ve got an old saying that ‘The public is always right in the middle and wrong at both ends’ when it comes to the stock market,” Elbourne says.

One end of the market that often feels it gets the raw end of the stick is the junior exploration space. Whether Australian, North American, or otherwise, small-caps feel the brunt of the vagaries of the sector more than mid-caps and majors.

It’s a notion Questcorp Mining (CSE:QQQ) CEO Saf Dhillon knows all too well. Dhillon’s gripe centres on there being too few investment dollars directed towards the smaller group of quality “low hanging fruit” potential projects. Juniors can help mitigate this with tightened capital structures, bolstering cash on hand, having well-positioned projects, and experienced management teams.

“The majority of the micro-cap space has been fighting for a smaller pool of capital and the investment decisions are tougher in their evaluation process of which ‘jockey’ and which ‘horse’ they think they should back,” Questcorp’s CEO continues.

Increasingly apparent is that most active horses and nimble jockeys are galloping across the Toronto Stock and TSX Venture exchanges. Mining is dictating the pace of these share markets. It’s a matter of perspective. Despite subdued conditions and difficulties in accessing funds, a February 2025 TMX report finds that Canada’s natural resources and technology-driven businesses continue shaping the country’s economy. 

The 2025 TSX Venture 50 spotlights how mining and innovation companies are advancing Canada’s long-term economic agenda and global competitiveness. A defining theme in the latest ranking is the dominance of resources companies, which account for 31 out of the 50 top performers. 

“The mining sector has always played a major role in Canada’s economy. The TSX-V is 58% mining and 32% of our overall markets (TSX and TSX-V). The dominance of the mining sector last year is consistent with the prior four years,” TMX Group’s McPherson tells Mining.com.au.

“Last year the mining sector raised more capital than any other sector. This is consistent with observations beyond our markets as well. We continue to outperform other sectors for the past five years. The returns we saw last year were above what we saw in 2023, which was a down year no doubt.”

Comparatively, the number of ASX-listed explorers banking cash in Q4 2024 reached its highest level in two years with BDO’s latest Explorers Quarterly Cash Update, which shows cash raised by explorers in the final quarter of 2024 surged 48% to $2.88 billion (C$2.515 billion) compared to the previous quarter, as reported.

The proportion of companies reporting financing inflow for the quarter climbed to 52%, up from 45% in Q3 2024, reaching the highest level since December 2022. This trend suggests funding is becoming increasingly accessible in Australia not only to larger explorers and developers, but also the smaller end of town. Equity was the main source of capital for ASX-listed explorers, accounting for 80% of the total funds raised. The data could signal a broader theme that capital markets will open up sooner rather than later.

All considered, the Canadian economy remains strong with mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction representing more than 8% of the country’s GDP. But if you’re a minnow it’s been getting harder to contribute to GDP.

As Copper Lake Resources (TSX-V:CPL) CEO Terry MacDonald explains, accessing capital remains a significant hurdle for juniors despite this contribution to the economy. Exacerbating this are the tax incentives to invest varying province to province, as are the levels of government funding available to finance exploration.

This in turn affects company valuations. Most, if not all, junior explorers will attest to being undervalued even as commodity prices in some minerals and metals reach record highs.

Conversely, the US stock market is historically overvalued. Crescat Capital opines that the US is poised for “significant correction in a potential bear market amidst a profusion of recessionary signals”.  

The investment firm is encouraging investors to rotate out of crowded and expensive securities of the last economic cycle and move into “deeply undervalued, high-growth opportunities of the future”. 

“The fund provides the opportunity to invest in historically undervalued commodity-related businesses at the early stages of an inflationary decade. Global central banks have been favouring gold over US Treasuries. We believe the fund is positioned to capitalise on this new trend,” Crescat Capital says.

One company positioned to capitalise on these emerging trends in Canada is Element79 Gold (CSE:ELEM). Speaking to Mining.com.au, CEO James C Tworek reiterates there is “plenty of competition and plenty of opportunity” within the country. 

“No one company can do it all. Having said that, we’re focused on restarting a past-producing mine. The former operator of this asset has grown to global scale and isn’t interested in projects of this stage and size anymore, leading to the adage ‘One man’s waste is another man’s wealth’ opportunity,” Tworek explains.

Element79 Gold is adopting a strategy Lion Selection Group’s Widdup details as an emerging trend, which encompasses miners increasingly pursuing synergistic bolt-on acquisitions in respective domestic markets.

Tworek explains that Element79 is actively assessing acquisitions and eyeing other in-country near-term production opportunities that complement its growth strategy and team’s skill set. In 2026, the company will “most likely” raise capital with several initiatives for capitalisation of its business plan now underway.

CEO of North Bay Resources (OTC:NBRI) Jared Lazerson is a ‘lone wolf’ but monitors dealflow with the same vigour he monitors the gold concentrate processed at the company’s Bishop Gold Mill in California. He echoes the sentiments that the market is likely to undergo widespread attrition and consolidation. In part two, Lazerson delves into the implications of an oversaturated market of with public companies. 

The market is moving quickly this year. Bulls seem to be bypassing the bears. In part two of the United State of Mining: A North American outlook series, Mining.com.au explores how US protectionism and deglobalisation is also defining key themes in 2025. 

According to several attendees at PDAC 2025, the keynote address on 2 March by Mike Henry, CEO of BHP (ASX:BHP), was a major talking point with his caution that the new administrations and regulatory overhauls in the US, Argentina, Chile, and Saudi Arabia may be a direct threat to Canada and Australia when it comes to attracting mining investment.

In part two on 27 March, Mining.com.au speaks to the likes of Copper Lake Resources (TSX-V:CPL) and Faraday Copper (TSX:FDY) and others who detail how despite the tariff posturing to US President Donald Trump and deglobalisation, Canada still offers huge growth potential due to the sheer size of the country and vastness of unexplored area.

Part two uncovers an interesting dynamic in which amid nationalistic agendas and deglobalisation, 50% of the mining projects operated by TSX and TSX-V companies are outside of Canada. That’s a lot of outbound investment generated from these companies.

Could this landscape change in 2025 as Trump imposes tariffs on trading partners and Canada calls a snap federal election?

Write to Adam Orlando at Mining.com.au

Images: Mining.com.au, Unsplash & iStock