United State of Mining: Is aggressive protectionism the antithesis of progress?
Aggressive US protectionism is tracking to become a key catalyst for deglobalisation in 2025, as President Donald Trump imposes substantial levies on goods from major trading partners such as Australia, Canada, and China.
Sprott Asset Management highlights ongoing international conflict, a changing political landscape from elections in over 60 countries in 2024, and vulnerabilities in supply chains is creating fear a full-blown global trade war is looming.
As part one of the United State of Mining: A North American outlook series highlights, however, mining executives and market insiders remain optimistic if not bullish of the year ahead.
Despite the apprehensive start to 2025, Head of Global Mining for the TMX Group (TSX:X) Dean McPherson anticipates positive trends that began emerging in 2024 will continue later this year into 2026.
“Last year, with heightened geopolitical tensions and a lowering US Fed’s interest rate trend which started in September, we saw companies through our markets raising C$10.4 billion and 41 new companies joining our markets,” McPherson tells this news service.
“This year, as geopolitical risks and uncertainty recedes, our expectation is that the expected cease fire/end of two major conflicts along with improving economic performance of the world’s leading economies will supersede any headwinds (trade wars?) on the global equities markets.
“We believe as risk subsides and rates lowered, junior exploration mining companies will start to see a return of capital to this end of the market and perhaps a closing of the equities markets’ performance and commodity price performance.”
TMX Group operates the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) and TSX Venture Exchange (TSX-V).
Mining executives with companies listed on these exchanges explain to Mining.com.au in part two of this series that rather than driving investment away from Canada – Trump’s tariffs posturing, a shift towards deglobalisation, and changing political landscape actually bodes well for junior mining companies.
Although consensus appears to be that foreign investment into North America is still needed and welcome – in Canada at least.
Foreign investment fragmentation
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) views rising geopolitical tensions as a key driver of foreign direct investment (FDI) fragmentation, as bilateral FDI becomes increasingly concentrated among countries that share similar geopolitical views, such as between Canada and Australia.
As Copper Lake Resources (TSX-V:CPL) CEO Terry MacDonald explains to Mining.com.au, despite these macroeconomic challenges the reality is “Canada offers huge growth potential due to the sheer size of the country and vastness of unexplored area”.
Echoing these sentiments, Questcorp Mining (CSE:QQQ) Director Tim Henneberry sees the current macroeconomic landscape creating opportunities.
“Canada is rich in natural resources, yet has an antidevelopment administration that believes they should be locked up. President Trump realises the natural resources wealth Canada holds and understands the key to wealth for the citizens of the country is utilising its endowment,” Henneberry says.
“He (Trump) is giving Canadians a wake up call that should be heeded.”
Two countries that understand each other and share many similarities are Canada and Australia. The north of both nations are rich in resources yet have underdeveloped infrastructure. They are sparsely populated where large proportions of the inhabitants are indigenous. Both are large physical areas with similar geopolitical environments – and they are well-endowed with minerals and resources.
With a population of about 40 million people, North Bay Resources (OTC:NBRI) CEO Jared Lazerson asserts that Canada punches above its weight compared to many other ‘mining countries’. Although the country is home to 40% of global public mining companies via the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) and TSX Venture Exchange (TSX-V), Lazerson suggests Canada cannot support listing many more mining companies as the “dollars just aren’t there”.
He wants more inbound investment from similar-minded countries to deepen the pool of capital available to juniors. And he’s not alone.
Super funds shaping global trade
To this end, the Canadian Australian Chamber of Commerce (CACC) recently hosted a private boardroom briefing at KPMG’s Sydney, Australia office that focused on strengthening economic ties between Canada and Australia and navigating institutional investment opportunities. The event featured Paul Thoppil, Canada’s Indo-Pacific Trade Representative from Global Affairs Canada as keynote guest speaker.
The CACC also held a private boardroom briefing at PwC’s Sydney office regarding Canada and Australia’s unique challenges and opportunities in the energy sector.
A key focus of the KPMG discussion was the significant influence of Canadian pension funds and Australian superannuation funds on global investment. These institutional investors play a crucial role in shaping global trade and capital flows between the two nations.
Australian and Canadian pension funds have been pioneers in infrastructure investing since the early 1990s. They also have the highest asset allocation to infrastructure around the world.
As of 2023, Australian investments in Canada totaled C$27 billion across direct and portfolio investments, while Canada’s portfolio investment in Australia exceeded C$58 billion. This dynamic is driven by the complementary resources, stable economic foundations, and long-term investment potential shared by the trading partners.
Macquarie Asset Management works with 18 of the 20 largest superannuation funds in Australia. It advises these funds on investing in and divesting assets in their portfolios across sectors such as infrastructure and energy, critical minerals, defence, among others. Over the next 10 years, Macquarie estimates the US alone will require more than US$7 trillion in infrastructure investment, with abundant opportunities in critical minerals, particularly downstream.
Where will the investment come from?
Australia’s pension funds – also known as superannuation or ‘super’ funds – manage about US$2.6 trillion of assets, making it the fourth largest retirement savings pool globally. Growing at about 13% a year, a February 2025 Macquarie report shows these funds are up almost 500% over the past two decades.
Head of Infrastructure in the Americas for Macquarie Asset Management, Karl Kuchel, believes this current growth trajectory could see Australia become the second-largest pension market globally by 2030.
“The United States has become a natural destination to deploy this capital, given the size of the economy and its strong performance over recent years”
“And the United States has become a natural destination to deploy this capital, given the size of the economy and its strong performance over recent years,” Kuchel says.
Australia’s largest pension fund AustralianSuper has amassed a $12 billion critical minerals portfolio it plans to bolster over the coming five years. AustralianSuper is also setting up offices in key investment markets abroad to manage its international investments.
With over $100 billion invested in the US alone, AustralianSuper is a significant investor in North America, as well as the rest of the world. The fund invests in companies such as US-based water heating and treatment company A O Smith Corp, global professional and industrial services company Accenture, Canadian mining company Agnico Eagle Mines (TSX:AEM), Air Canada, Arc Resources (TSX:ARX), Barrick Gold (NYSE:GOLD), and TMX Group (TSX:X), among a plethora of others.
Global investments often have higher growth potential than sticking solely to local or domestic investments. Many international markets – especially in developing countries – are growing at a faster pace than some more mature markets.
It was one of the key issues raised at the 93rd Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) convention in Toronto earlier in March. Mining.com.au was an official media partner of PDAC 2025.
Antithesis of progress?
The keynote address on 2 March by CEO of BHP (ASX:BHP) Mike Henry was a major talking point at PDAC 2025. His caution was that the new administrations and regulationary overhauls in the US, Argentina, Chile, and Saudi Arabia may be a direct threat to Western nations when it comes to attracting mining investment.
Other themes emerged, TMX Group’s McPherson says, ranging from attracting more investment to major reforms in the mining sector.
“The key emerging trend is how competitive these jurisdictions are becoming. Australia like Canada has to become more competitive to continue to attract mining capital. Permitting reforms is the low hanging fruit,” McPherson tells Mining.com.au.
Copper Lake’s MacDonald believes a transformational shift is already starting to happen.
“The combination of the US tariff position and the Canadian political scene is resulting in a significant shift towards investment in mining in Canada, and a streamlining of the approval process for permitting and infrastructure development,” MacDonald adds.
In the next 12 months, MacDonald expects exploration potential in North America to greatly increase due to the new focus of the Ontario and federal governments on streamlining the permitting processes and in particular, the stated objective of advancing the Ring of Fire road development and permitting, which has been in limbo for over 10 years.
Protracted permitting processes, stagnant markets, diminished institutional investment, and regulatory barriers to obtaining foreign investment have long plagued Canadian mining companies. Efforts to streamline processes are underway with various levels of Canadian government implementing reforms.
“The key emerging trend is how competitive these jurisdictions are becoming. Australia like Canada has to become more competitive to continue to attract mining capital”
In March 2023, amendments to Ontario’s Mining Act were introduced to address some of these issues with the Building More Mines Act (2023) aiming to reduce red tape and clarify rehabilitation requirements. The changes seek to decrease timelines for starting or altering production and advanced exploration projects, while assisting permitting for mineral recovery from waste and tailings materials to simplify mining closure plans.
Similarly, in April 2024, Ontario Regulation 35/24 was introduced to more align with the aforementioned Building More Mines Act. The new regulation includes conditional filing orders to streamline closure plan approvals, as well as formalising phased financial assurance to align rehabilitation funding with project milestones, among other changes.
Ontario is committing C$13 million to 84 projects through the Ontario Junior Exploration Program to support early stage exploration, particularly in underexplored regions. By reducing financial barriers, business law firm McMillian says this initiative aims to accelerate new discoveries and attract further investment, helping to address long timelines and high costs of launching projects.
Polices and regulatory overhauls that stimulate exploration and mining development, coupled with streamlining of the approvals process for permitting bolster a region’s attractiveness for investment.
Crescat Capital says high-quality exploration businesses present a timely investment opportunity at historically cheap valuations. Crescat anticipates a wave of new asset allocation into commodities will be driven by a multitude of macro drivers supporting higher metal prices.
In Crescat’s view, mining majors in particular are now facing an unprecedented reserves crisis and production cliff, setting the stage for M&A activity. This activity and projected sector consolidation is already underway – but it’s not just the majors that are active.
Tariffs, trends, and a ticking clock
As industry sources interviewed for this series agree, the market is pivoting towards funnelling investment in Canada’s mining sector, with approvals processes for permitting and infrastructure development starting to improve.
For Element79 Gold (CSE:ELEM), which in late April is aiming to complete community negotiations that include a long-term surface rights access permit at its Minas Lucero Project in Peru, streamlining permitting processes becomes extremely important in an age of nationalism and deglobalisation, regardless of where assets are located.
The company is shaping up to be an active participant in projected sector consolidation this year, which is flagged by Lion Selection Group (ASX:LSX) CEO Hedley Widdup in part one of the United State of Mining: A North American outlook series.
Commenting on the situation, Element79 CEO James C Tworek reiterates that in North America, Canada presents a plethora of opportunities whether the focus is on investing or divesting.
“On top of our core focus on Lucero, we have been divesting an old exploration portfolio to generate income and shares on our balance sheet that have grown substantially; we will strategically divest of these shares over time to fund operations and expand Lucero,” Tworek says.
“In addition, we have been reviewing a number of similar-stage opportunities in Peru with a mind to ensure multi-project risk diversification, and the potential to develop multiple streams of income to develop in different parts of the country.”
Acquisitions and attrition
During this anticipated period of consolidation, Trojan Gold (CSE:TGII) CEO Charles J Elbourne is predicting a raft of junior mining stocks could disappear.
“I think there’s too many junior mining companies in Canada, especially out in Vancouver, because that’s the hub for the juniors. Typically, what you do when you set up a junior mining company, you’re better off to set it up in British Columbia because the regulators there have more of an understanding of mining,” Elbourne says.
Elbourne is not alone. North Bay’s Lazerson feels like a ‘lone wolf’ and monitors the market (including dealflow) with the same vigour he monitors the gold concentrate processed at his Bishop Gold Mill in California.
Lazerson laments the market is oversaturated with public mining companies.
“There’s too many deals out there and a lot of them are zombie deals and they’ll go away or you can just tell they aren’t trading. They might have a little pop-up, but you can tell they’re not engaged. The market’s not engaged,” North Bay’s CEO explains.
“Their story’s not that interesting, but they have lots of good projects. Attrition hasn’t happened yet – but attrition is beginning to happen. I don’t know that these companies will go away, they may survive and make it there are about a thousand exploration companies on the TSX (and TSX-V).”
With a population of about 40 million people, Lazerson suggests Canada cannot support listing many more mining companies as the “dollars just aren’t there”. Crossborder interest between Australia and Canada exists to share the load, however there’s not a huge crossover at present.
North Bay’s CEO believes there is a generational shift happening. The North American mining market could be at an inflection point as consolidation and deal activity in 2025 become defining features.
Canadian explorer Questcorp Mining (CSE:QQQ) is one such company participating in the consolidation. Questcorp used PDAC 2025 to seek out potential project acquisitions. CEO Saf Dhillon met with company executives to discuss potential project acquisition opportunities and/or partnerships.
Questcorp in late 2024 inked a letter of intent with Riverside Resources (TSX-V:RRI) for an option to acquire the La Union Project in Mexico, where grab samples have returned grades of up to 83.2 grams per tonne gold and up to 30% zinc.
Lion’s view a timely one
It’s all right on time, according to the Lion Investment Clock, with cash takeovers next and then a ‘boom’ to come. Lion’s CEO Hedley Widdup says the clock tells the same time for all markets and commodities around the world.
Lion has held the clock at 4 o’clock for over a year now. Widdup tells Mining.com.au it has been reviewing this and the clock will soon be moving forward.
“Broadly speaking, I think the gold price enthusiasm has helped liquidity and that is the underlying driver of the clock. In saying that, right now we haven’t seen enough of this to show that the market really has moved on, so there is a subjective element of ‘this feels like it has legs’,” he adds.
“We have seen many and large fund raisings for gold and there are some in the barrel that are moving forwards with confidence (such as the Minerals 260 raise to acquire Bulla Bulling) – that is liquidity right there and lots of it.
“The measure I am watching closely is IPOs because that is the litmus test – once you can raise money again to list a new company, liquidity is properly back and into the explorers – but it’s too early for this measure to mean much and I am not sure I can see a pipeline building just yet. So it might not be 4 o’clock any more, but it’s also not yet 6 o’clock.”
Widdup says the clock is universal in that the market requires global capital to be doing moderately similar things to move through milestones – so if North America is slow then it tends to hold back the clock reading. Similarly, where gold is leading the wave of liquidity, many of the critical minerals and larger markets like iron ore are holding it back.
“It’s entirely possible that one market is subdued compared with another, but moves through the same stages and signals. So one of the factors in my mind holding back the clock is the state of the North American market although I would note they tend to see far lower volumes of IPOs that we see on ASX, because of the way that projects find their way into listed companies in both markets,” he continues.
“You can list companies at far earlier commercial stages in North America and on subsidiary exchanges, whereas in Australia you need to meet a (relatively) higher threshold of maturity to list in Australia.”
Amid this backdrop, Peak Asset Management founder Niv Dagan says there are other trends to look out for in 2025 for miners in Australia and North America.
“It’s all about the USD and the 10-year bond yields. We feel that Trump is purposely pushing for a recession, in order to drive US yields lower. We have to remember that the US has over US$7 trillion of debt maturing in 2025 and hence, if he can refinance this debt at lower interest rates, the market will bounce strongly,” Dagan tells Mining.com.au.
“This is driving inflows towards gold, silver, and copper – on the back of a ‘flight to safety’ and US tariffs.”
With the clock ticking along, discover what this all means when the United State of Mining: A North American outlook feature series concludes next week.
Write to Adam Orlando at Mining.com.au
Images: Mining.com.au, CACC, Lion Selection & PDAC